A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
